The new year’s market is beginning to wake up. January typically marks the early stages of renewed activity, but one pattern consistently stands out: buyers tend to return faster than new listings hit the market.
While listing activity has started to rise in the past two weeks—after reaching its annual low in December—it still lags behind buyer demand. As a result, the year begins with a familiar dynamic: increasing demand competing for limited inventory. Historically, this imbalance fuels competition, characterized by faster sales and homes selling above asking price—key drivers of home price appreciation.
This supply-demand gap often persists through the spring months, making late winter and early spring the most competitive selling season of the year.
Key Market Drivers for 2026
- Interest rates are near multi-year lows, supporting affordability relative to recent years.
- Stock markets, despite recent volatility, remain near all-time highs, strengthening household wealth.
- The ongoing AI boom continues to generate substantial wealth in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, directly benefiting higher-end housing demand.
- While national consumer confidence remains mixed and employment concerns persist, these factors have not significantly dampened local market activity.
As seen over the past two years, affluent buyers are poised to play an outsized role in demand, particularly in San Mateo County—one of the most affluent counties in the nation—and throughout key markets in San Francisco and Santa Clara County.
Outlook
Barring unexpected political or economic shocks, all indicators point toward an early and competitive spring market across our region.
If you’re considering buying or selling in 2026, the time to prepare is now—before competition intensifies.
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