With the Federal Reserve announcing another rate cut this Wednesday—and Chair Powell signaling a more dovish stance—the market is preparing for meaningful shifts in 2026. While mortgage rates have not yet responded immediately, today’s rates are approximately 0.75% lower than this time last year, offering a more favorable environment for both buyers and current homeowners considering refinancing.
Seasonal Slowdown Arrives
As expected, the real estate market entered its traditional mid-winter slowdown in November. Listing and sales activity declined significantly, a pattern that typically accelerates through December—the slowest month of the year—before beginning to reawaken by mid-January.
This seasonal cooling does not impact all areas equally. This fall, San Francisco experienced a dramatic surge in demand, driven largely by the accelerating AI startup boom. The city now ranks among the hottest real estate markets in the country, with intensified competition for well-priced homes.
Buyer Opportunities This Month
Although the number of new listings decreases sharply in December, motivated buyers often benefit during this period. Properties that have been on the market longer may be more negotiable, giving buyers increased leverage—especially if sellers are eager to enter the new year with a sale behind them.
Meanwhile, new listings that are well-priced, well-prepared, and professionally marketed continue to sell quickly and, in many cases, above asking price.
Looking Ahead to the New Year
Historically, the start of the year brings a meaningful uptick in buyer activity that builds through spring. Combined with softening mortgage rates and improving sentiment for 2026, the early-year market may become particularly active for both buyers and sellers.
If you are considering making a move next year—or simply want to understand the current market conditions—I’m here as your resource.
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